Section 5 Calibration and Validation

5.1 Parameter Estimates

5.1.1 Fixed Effects

Variable Estimate Std. Error z Value p Value
(Intercept) 0.789 0.118 6.701 0.000
AreaSqKM 0.098 0.069 1.424 0.154
summer_prcp_mm 0.085 0.100 0.847 0.397
mean_jul_temp -2.423 0.150 -16.171 0.000
forest -0.157 0.080 -1.968 0.049
allonnet -0.061 0.056 -1.077 0.282
devel_hi -0.098 0.057 -1.710 0.087
agriculture -0.813 0.093 -8.714 0.000
AreaSqKM:summer_prcp_mm 0.112 0.056 2.020 0.043
mean_jul_temp:forest -0.129 0.064 -2.008 0.045
summer_prcp_mm:forest 0.062 0.062 1.005 0.315

5.1.1.1 Marginal Effect Plots

5.1.2 Random Effects

Distribution of each random effect over all HUC10’s.

5.2 Goodness-of-Fit

Table 5.1: Summary statistics of model calibration and validation
Calibration Validation
# Catchments 9,571 2,288
Sensitivity 0.682 0.628
Specificity 0.776 0.702
False Negative Rate 0.057 0.092
False Positive Rate 0.054 0.124
Accuracy 0.719 0.656
Error Rate 0.111 0.215
AUC 0.958 0.830

5.2.1 Calibration

5.2.2 Validation