Section 5 Calibration and Validation

5.1 Parameter Estimates

5.1.1 Fixed Effects

Variable Estimate Std. Error z Value p Value
(Intercept) 0.349 0.114 3.062 0.002
AreaSqKM -0.332 0.068 -4.911 0.000
summer_prcp_mm 0.324 0.101 3.216 0.001
meanJulyTemp -0.770 0.091 -8.416 0.000
forest 0.402 0.070 5.736 0.000
allonnet -0.107 0.054 -1.965 0.049
devel_hi -0.137 0.062 -2.212 0.027
agriculture -0.647 0.102 -6.309 0.000
AreaSqKM:summer_prcp_mm 0.072 0.056 1.301 0.193
meanJulyTemp:forest -0.150 0.055 -2.707 0.007
summer_prcp_mm:forest 0.105 0.062 1.705 0.088

5.1.1.1 Marginal Effect Plots

5.1.2 Random Effects

Distribution of each random effect over all HUC10’s.

5.2 Goodness-of-Fit

Table 5.1: Summary statistics of model calibration and validation
Calibration Validation
# Catchments 9,287 2,570
Sensitivity 0.679 0.617
Specificity 0.775 0.679
False Negative Rate 0.056 0.127
False Positive Rate 0.057 0.139
Accuracy 0.717 0.641
Error Rate 0.113 0.265
AUC 0.954 0.795

5.2.1 Calibration

5.2.2 Validation