Section 5 Calibration and Validation

After processing all of the data, the model was fitted using jags. The observation dataset was split into 80% for calibration, 20% for validation.

5.1 Calibration Results

5.1.1 With Autocorrelation Term

Statistics of All Observations
==============================
# Observations = 546,051
RMSE = 0.623
R^2 = 0.979 degC
Median Absolute Residual = 0.359 degC
Mean Residual = 0.00739 degC
Median Residual = 0.0086 degC
Max Residual = 7.54 degC
95th Percentile Residual = 0.997 degC
5th Percentile Residual = -0.983 degC
Min Residual = -8.46 degC
Statistics by Deployment
==============================
# Deployments = 6,442
Mean RMSE = 0.615 degC
Median RMSE = 0.581 degC
Max RMSE = 3.88 degC
Min RMSE = 0.12 degC
Statistics by Site
==============================
# Sites = 2,463
Mean RMSE = 0.571 degC
Median RMSE = 0.554 degC
Max RMSE = 1.7 degC
Min RMSE = 0.181 degC

5.1.2 Without Autocorrelation Term

Statistics of All Observations
==============================
# Observations = 546,051
RMSE = 1.11
R^2 = 0.934 degC
Median Absolute Residual = 0.663 degC
Mean Residual = 0.0619 degC
Median Residual = 0.0773 degC
Max Residual = 13.4 degC
95th Percentile Residual = 1.81 degC
5th Percentile Residual = -1.73 degC
Min Residual = -10.4 degC
Statistics by Deployment
==============================
# Deployments = 6,442
Mean RMSE = 1 degC
Median RMSE = 0.899 degC
Max RMSE = 6.85 degC
Min RMSE = 0.0879 degC
Statistics by Site
==============================
# Sites = 2,463
Mean RMSE = 0.942 degC
Median RMSE = 0.856 degC
Max RMSE = 3.4 degC
Min RMSE = 0.225 degC

5.2 Validation Results

5.2.1 With Autocorrelation Term

Statistics of All Observations
==============================
# Observations = 60,715
RMSE = 0.668
R^2 = 0.975 degC
Median Absolute Residual = 0.383 degC
Mean Residual = 0.0163 degC
Median Residual = 0.0129 degC
Max Residual = 6.92 degC
95th Percentile Residual = 1.07 degC
5th Percentile Residual = -1.03 degC
Min Residual = -7.82 degC
Statistics by Deployment
==============================
# Deployments = 679
Mean RMSE = 0.658 degC
Median RMSE = 0.617 degC
Max RMSE = 2.05 degC
Min RMSE = 0.201 degC
Statistics by Site
==============================
# Sites = 465
Mean RMSE = 0.648 degC
Median RMSE = 0.616 degC
Max RMSE = 2.05 degC
Min RMSE = 0.292 degC

5.2.2 Without Autocorrelation Term

Statistics of All Observations
==============================
# Observations = 60,715
RMSE = 1.47
R^2 = 0.88 degC
Median Absolute Residual = 0.838 degC
Mean Residual = 0.12 degC
Median Residual = 0.114 degC
Max Residual = 11 degC
95th Percentile Residual = 2.45 degC
5th Percentile Residual = -2.13 degC
Min Residual = -12 degC
Statistics by Deployment
==============================
# Deployments = 679
Mean RMSE = 1.27 degC
Median RMSE = 1.07 degC
Max RMSE = 7.44 degC
Min RMSE = 0.251 degC
Statistics by Site
==============================
# Sites = 465
Mean RMSE = 1.34 degC
Median RMSE = 1.12 degC
Max RMSE = 7.44 degC
Min RMSE = 0.389 degC