Section 5 Calibration and Validation

5.1 Parameter Estimates

5.1.1 Fixed Effects

Variable Estimate Std. Error z Value p Value
Intercept 0.949 0.119 7.952 0.000
Drainage Area (km2) 0.030 0.065 0.464 0.642
Summer Precip (mm) 0.103 0.098 1.050 0.294
Mean July Temp (degC) -2.103 0.142 -14.770 0.000
% Forest -0.115 0.075 -1.531 0.126
% Impounded Drainage Area -0.193 0.052 -3.702 0.000
% Developed, High Intensity -0.199 0.052 -3.859 0.000
% Agriculture -0.819 0.090 -9.096 0.000
(% Agriculture:Summer Precip) 0.134 0.050 2.691 0.007
(Mean July Temp:% Forest) -0.100 0.058 -1.726 0.084
(Summer Precip:% Forest) 0.034 0.057 0.593 0.553

5.1.1.1 Marginal Effect Plots

5.1.2 Random Effects

Distribution of each random effect over all HUC10’s.

5.2 Goodness-of-Fit

Table 5.1: Summary statistics of model calibration and validation
Calibration Validation
# Catchments 10,302 2,839
Sensitivity 0.660 0.620
Specificity 0.797 0.715
False Negative Rate 0.050 0.087
False Positive Rate 0.059 0.120
Accuracy 0.708 0.654
Error Rate 0.109 0.207
AUC 0.957 0.835

5.2.1 Calibration

5.2.2 Validation