Section 5 Calibration and Validation

5.1 Parameter Estimates

5.1.1 Fixed Effects

Variable Estimate Std. Error z Value p Value
Intercept 1.153 0.125 9.220 0.000
Drainage Area (km2) 0.026 0.068 0.377 0.707
Summer Precip (mm) 0.007 0.101 0.068 0.946
Mean July Temp (degC) -2.380 0.148 -16.069 0.000
% Forest -0.155 0.072 -2.145 0.032
% Impounded Drainage Area -0.195 0.052 -3.745 0.000
% Developed, High Intensity -0.129 0.050 -2.581 0.010
% Agriculture -0.887 0.090 -9.904 0.000
(% Agriculture:Summer Precip) 0.107 0.051 2.071 0.038
(Mean July Temp:% Forest) -0.112 0.058 -1.923 0.054
(Summer Precip:% Forest) 0.118 0.058 2.038 0.042

5.1.1.1 Marginal Effect Plots

5.1.2 Random Effects

Distribution of each random effect over all HUC10’s.

5.2 Goodness-of-Fit

Table 5.1: Summary statistics of model calibration and validation
Calibration Validation
# Catchments 10,491 2,650
Sensitivity 0.660 0.623
Specificity 0.795 0.723
False Negative Rate 0.053 0.097
False Positive Rate 0.060 0.104
Accuracy 0.708 0.658
Error Rate 0.112 0.201
AUC 0.956 0.846

5.2.1 Calibration

5.2.2 Validation