Section 5 Calibration and Validation

5.1 Parameter Estimates

5.1.1 Fixed Effects

Variable Estimate Std. Error z Value p Value
Intercept 1.111 0.122 9.117 0.000
Drainage Area (km2) 0.067 0.069 0.970 0.332
Summer Precip (mm) -0.012 0.100 -0.124 0.902
Mean July Temp (degC) -2.376 0.144 -16.457 0.000
% Forest -0.205 0.073 -2.793 0.005
% Impounded Drainage Area -0.174 0.052 -3.340 0.001
% Developed, High Intensity -0.122 0.049 -2.490 0.013
% Agriculture -0.877 0.088 -10.008 0.000
(% Agriculture:Summer Precip) 0.112 0.052 2.155 0.031
(Mean July Temp:% Forest) -0.104 0.058 -1.788 0.074
(Summer Precip:% Forest) 0.113 0.058 1.943 0.052

5.1.1.1 Marginal Effect Plots

5.1.2 Random Effects

Distribution of each random effect over all HUC10’s.

5.2 Goodness-of-Fit

Table 5.1: Summary statistics of model calibration and validation
Calibration Validation
# Catchments 10,487 2,650
Sensitivity 0.660 0.625
Specificity 0.795 0.727
False Negative Rate 0.053 0.091
False Positive Rate 0.061 0.107
Accuracy 0.708 0.661
Error Rate 0.114 0.198
AUC 0.956 0.852

5.2.1 Calibration

5.2.2 Validation