Section 5 Calibration and Validation

5.1 Parameter Estimates

5.1.1 Fixed Effects

Variable Estimate Std. Error z Value p Value
Intercept 0.906 0.118 7.666 0.000
Drainage Area (km2) -0.055 0.062 -0.878 0.380
Summer Precip (mm) 0.120 0.095 1.268 0.205
Mean July Temp (degC) -2.027 0.135 -15.023 0.000
% Forest -0.126 0.074 -1.709 0.088
% Impounded Drainage Area -0.183 0.054 -3.416 0.001
% Developed, High Intensity -0.152 0.051 -2.962 0.003
% Agriculture -0.845 0.088 -9.627 0.000
(% Agriculture:Summer Precip) 0.100 0.051 1.943 0.052
(Mean July Temp:% Forest) -0.107 0.057 -1.869 0.062
(Summer Precip:% Forest) 0.072 0.057 1.263 0.206

5.1.1.1 Marginal Effect Plots

5.1.2 Random Effects

Distribution of each random effect over all HUC10’s.

5.2 Goodness-of-Fit

Table 5.1: Summary statistics of model calibration and validation
Calibration Validation
# Catchments 10,357 2,784
Sensitivity 0.664 0.605
Specificity 0.791 0.720
False Negative Rate 0.055 0.103
False Positive Rate 0.061 0.117
Accuracy 0.710 0.642
Error Rate 0.116 0.219
AUC 0.955 0.825

5.2.1 Calibration

5.2.2 Validation